On September 11, former president Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison by Brazil’s Supreme Court for an attempted coup against his successor Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva. The case against Bolsonaro—who is also barred from running in next year’s presidential election—is a key point of contention between Brasília and Washington. The White House believes the “Trump of the Tropics” to be the victim of a political “witch hunt,” and has leveled sanctions against members of the Brazilian judiciary—most notably, Justice Alexandre de Moraes—as well as 50 percent tariffs against a host of Brazilian imports. The development has led parts of Brazil’s business community and clientelistic congress to call for clemency for the former president in the hope of placating the White House.
The most realistic proposal under discussion would end or limit Bolsonaro’s sentence while maintaining his ineligibility in the 2026 election. Members of the Supreme Court have suggested they would be open to the proposal, though it remains unclear if this represents a majority opinion on the bench. It is likewise uncertain whether the incumbent Lula, who has benefited politically from his steadfast defense of Brazil’s sovereignty, would condone or veto a partial amnesty for his nemesis. Even more of an open question is whether Bolsonaro or Trump would be satisfied with these terms.
An audacious—if riskier—alternative would be for Lula to exploit his considerable leverage and offer further concessions to Bolsonarismo in exchange for legislative backing for domestic priorities. He could, for instance, agree to run against Bolsonaro in 2026 in exchange for congress doubling the minimum wage.