It took nearly 200 years for the United States to accumulate its first $1 trillion in publicly held national debt. That amount is now added every four months. For all that’s said about the weak shoulders of America’s younger generations, they are carrying an immense burden that is only getting heavier. Focus on Donald Trump’s tariff war has led many to overlook this growing problem. Attention needs to shift to the national debt load because it is this—not the trade deficit—that ultimately underlies the economic, political, and cultural malaise through which the United States is living.
The numbers are grim. The debt-to-GDP ratio has remained above 120 percent since 2020, higher than it was at the end of World War II. The national debt is set to hit $40 trillion in 2026, up from $530 billion in 1975. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for everything from mortgages to business loans, has climbed from a pandemic low of 0.6 percent to more than 4.5 percent, driving up the cost of credit across the board, pinching ordinary Americans in the form of rising housing costs and inaccessible credit. Bond yields have continued to rise even after Trump softened or paused some of his tariffs.