Donald Trump began his second term with a push for negotiated settlement with Iran, picking up from efforts at the end of his first term, which had been interrupted by Covid and his unseating in 2020. In the meantime, the October 7 attack had happened, prompting Israel to dismantle Iranian allies throughout the Middle East. This effort culminated in direct war between Iran and Israel in 2025, in the midst of US-Iran talks. Benjamin Netanyahu might have hoped to spike these negotiations, but Trump joined Israel’s bombing of Iran in order to end Israel’s war, turning it into a further lever against Iran for making a deal, and resisting Israeli calls for a “regime-change” crusade. Trump went so far as to offer the prospect of Iran joining the Abraham Accords, which had appeared originally designed to isolate and present a united Arab-Israeli front against Tehran. Trump proudly lists the Israel-Iran conflict as one of the “wars” he’s settled during his first year in office.
Now, protests have broken out in Iran. There have been several waves of such protests going back to 2009 and the Green Movement around controversial election results, disputed between reformers and conservative hardliners. Since then, the specter of regime collapse of some kind or another has loomed. Would the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council be swept aside by the IRGC and Basiji militias in a military coup? Would the veneer of “democracy” be stripped away? Or would there be a democratic revolution and a more radical political change, ending the Islamic Republic? Will a civil war erupt? Will Iran become another “failed state”?
Trump seems to be preparing for any eventuality. In a recent Truth Social post, he promised to “rescue” Iranians from violent repression by the regime. At the same time, as recently as Netanyahu’s visit to Mar-a-Lago ahead of the New Year—the day after Volodymyr Zelensky came to discuss war and peace with Russia—Trump called for Iranian leaders to “take the deal” he’s been offering them. One of his first actions in his transition after election in November 2024 was to make contact with Iranian representatives about restarting talks. Was he sincere, or was it a ruse to trick them into lowering their guard? It is best to take Trump straightforwardly. He has said that Iranian leaders have two choices: deal or conflict. He threw out the JCPOA negotiated by Obama because he thought it was a bad deal, not because he wanted war. He wanted to avoid it. He seems justified in saying that Obama and Biden efforts had led to October 7, because it provided billions to Iran with which they could and did instigate trouble. Meanwhile, Trump’s tete-a-tete and desired détente with Russia’s Putin continues—as China’s Xi has accepted an invitation to visit Washington and Trump agreed to travel to Beijing later this year.