Although President Trump is often unpredictable, he has been consistent on one issue throughout his presidency: Iran will never be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon. During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump lambasted the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a “terrible” deal that gave Iran too much sanctions relief and protected its enrichment capacity. Once in office, he withdrew the United States from the agreement. Since then, Trump has used a combination of increasingly severe economic pressure, aggressive diplomacy, and military force to try to coerce Iran into ending its nuclear program altogether, culminating in Operation Epic Fury, a campaign of air, sea, and ground strikes carried out alongside Israel. The issue featured prominently in recent negotiations between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian leaders, and remains at the top of Trump’s list of objectives as hostilities resumed over the weekend.
With the ceasefire over and fighting ongoing, a final resolution of the war remains elusive. But Trump’s primary objective—permanently shutting the door on Iran’s nuclear program—is likely to be out of reach regardless. Instead, Trump’s war is more likely to have exactly the opposite effect: convincing Tehran that pursuing a nuclear weapon is the only real path to security. Worse, other states, including US allies and adversaries, may come to the same conclusion. In the end, a war aimed at preventing proliferation seems likely to accelerate it. The United States should acknowledge this emerging reality and start working now to shape it to its own benefit.