Donald Trump rose to power in large part by appealing to working-class men. He was able to channel their frustration with trade deals and automation that destroyed working-class jobs, helped fuel thousands of deaths of despair, and powered a wave of anger in working-class communities across America.
These economic shocks also proved devastating for all too many families in working-class communities across America. Job losses raised “the share of mothers who [became] unwed and the share of children living in below-poverty, single-headed households,” according to MIT economist David Autor and his colleagues. That’s because men’s work remains immensely important in determining who gets and stays married. Men are more likely to be viewed as good prospects for marriage, more likely to get married, and more likely to stay married when they have a good job. “His” work matters more for marriage than “her” work. One Harvard study, for instance, showed that a couple’s risk of divorce shot up 33 percent if the husband was unemployed, but rose not at all if the wife was unemployed.
Now the rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other forms of automation pose new threats to working-class families—ones that Trump will have to address to deliver on his populist message. Goldman Sachs estimates that as many as 300 million jobs in the United States and Europe could be eliminated by AI. This will have profound effects for family formation, if history is any indication.